Yosh!
I wanna change yesterday's trading idea, that is not to go short for the time being. If we look at the chart above, the bear candle (marked as [i]), has a long shadow, which means, there was buying pressure that pushed the price higher. Besides that, the candle also can be a new point to redraw the trend line.
Later, the bull candle (marked as [ii]), indeed, it opened below the trend line, but, it was not convincing enough that it will go down further, because of previous candle which has the possibility to become a new redraw point.
As expected, there is a new redraw point, and I have redrawn the trend line. I'll go short when a new candle open below the trend line.
That is all for today, thank you for visiting o.O
Not Yet AUD/USD o.O
Today's Trading Ideas o.O
Yosh!
Today I have 2 trading ideas:
AUD/USD:
Based on the chart above, the idea is to go short after a new candle open below the trend line.
Potential profit: 250+ pips
Target profit: 100 - 200 pips
Stop loss: previous high - 0.9541
Silver:
Silver is going down, following the Gold. The price is going down as USD strengthen starting last week. So people tend to trade/invest in riskier stuff, other than precious metals.
However, based on the chart above, I'll go long if the price break the trend line.
Potential profit: the price might increase more than $1
Target profit: 20 cent for each position
Stop loss: previous low - $16.41
That is all for today, just now AUD/USD touched the trend line, maybe it will break in the next 4-8 hours. Just wait and see.
Thank you for visiting, thank you for reading, I'll update this blog later :)
Off Topic: Link Exchange, Anyone?
Yosh!
Today I'm not going to post anything about forex, but I'm going to write about blogging.
First, I have changed from using AdBrite to NuffNang. There's no concrete reasons for that, it is just I wanna try something new. I also has put a poll below the ads, so feel free to answer the questions there ;)
Second, I changed a bit the layout at the right sidebar. Feel so bored today (ya know, the market don't really move a lot on Monday) so while waiting for London and US market to open, I did some change, also add previous posts section - after this visitors don't need to check the archives to access previous posts.
Third, anyone who has a blog(s) and interested to exchange link with me, you are most welcome. Whether it is about forex or not - doesn't matter - I'll categorize all the links (entertainment, education, etc) , but preferably, the blog must have existed for more than a month with more than 15 posts. The content must be at least 65% original and if it is written in English, that will be an advantage ;)
If you have any suggestions for me to upgrade or improve this blog, feel free to leave your message(s) or comment(s).
That's all for today. I will update this blog tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Thank you for visiting o.O
Trading Ideas for Next Week :)
Yosh!
Below are my trading ideas for next week:
EUR/USD:
I'll go short if the price breaks the trend line. Stop loss is the highest high and take profit is 10 pips and above.
By the way, I have a short position in this pair, opened last week.
GBP/USD:
I have no idea where the pair will go. I'll wait until the pair breaks any of the trend lines.
Other than that, my trading bias (@ instinct) for other pairs:
Buy:
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Sell:
NZD/USD
Mix:
AUD/USD (65% of my instinct says will go short for this pair)
That's all for today. Thank you for visiting :)
A Weekly Wrap
Yosh!
This is what happen in last week, copy-and-pasted from CNBC. Original post is located here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/24316437
For this Green Week ending, April 25, 2008 the US Markets ended the week slightly to the upside. The relatively flat performance was driven by a comeback in the dollar, a streak of records for crude oil, better than expected jobless claims, 26-year low consumer sentiment, mixed earnings, and a 10 point victory for Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.
Commodities:
Crude Oil contracts had six straight days of record intraday highs from 4/15-4/22 with an all-time high of $119.90/barrel reached on 4/22. Oil pulled back later in the week with the rise of the dollar but then rose again on Friday with new violence in the Persian Gulf. Events like the pipeline attacks in Nigeria, a decline in oil production in Mexico, and a Scottish refinery strike threatened crude oil production also helped drive crude oil prices. Crude oil June contracts finished slightly up 2.03% for the week.
**AAA reported that the average retail gas price hit a new record high of $3.577/gal as of 4/25. Diesel also hit a new record high at $4.233/gal as of 4/25.
Currencies:
The Dollar Index, advanced 1.11% for week. Friday, the greenback rallied against the euro and yen as investors anticipate next week’s Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
During midday trading on Friday, the euro continued losing ground against the greenback to $1.5633, or 2.45% lower from its all-time record of $1.6017 recorded on Tuesday this week.
**The greenback appreciated against the euro helped by a bigger than expected drop in business sentiment in Germany, along with analysts’ expectations that the European Central Bank might be forced to cut interest rates to offset weak economic data.
The pound sterling traded at $1.9853 /pound on Friday morning on news that retail sales fell and on a sharp decline in manufacturing orders in the United Kingdom.
**The sterling pound is down 2.67% percent from its highest intraday price this year, $2.0397/pound, reached in March 14.
The dollar appreciated 67% to 104.35 against the yen during midday Friday. The greenback has appreciated 8.36% from its over-a-decade intraday low of 96.15 yen recorded in March 17, 2008.
The Canadian dollar depreciated 1.26% for the week to 1.0170 per U.S. dollar on Friday, following Tuesday’s news that the Canadian Central Bank cut interests rates by 50 basis points to 3% in an effort to prevent declining exports to the United States from driving down Canadian economic growth.
**Canada’s Central Bank has cut interest rates by 150 basis points since December.
Please do your homework before doing some trades. Thank you for visiting :)
The Week Ahead :)
Yosh!
Next week I can't really trade actively all my money. For Flizzoe's Game account, I'm going to increase the equity instead of increasing the balance. Trading to increase the equity is less active than trading to increase the balance, meaning, there will be less profit taking.
I need to do so because I want to focus to my friend's account because she needs a lot of money or else, she might end up bankrupt.
So here is my plan for next week:
I'll go long for USD/CAD in all account.
I'll trade GBP/USD heavily in my friend's account to increase the balance. My trading bias is mix in this pair.
Please bear in mind, whenever I put my trading bias here, that doesn't mean I'll trade it immediately. I usually will take some time to buy the dip and sell the rally :)
My target next week:
Flizzoe's Game account: 10% increase.
Friend's account: 50-100% increase.
I wonder whether I can reach it or not but I really need to help her out :S
That's all for today. Thank you for visiting.
Pops and Drops
Yosh!
First, it's my Flizzoe's Game Trading Journal! Let's see what I have in my portfolio :)
Balance: $45.50
Equity: $93.87
Return on Investment: 455%
If I closed all positions, the Return on Investment is: 938.7%
And that is in two weeks. I think you guys have a clearer picture on how this training works. For next week, I might add two more pairs - USD/CAD and AUD/USD. I think I'll go long for USD/CAD, and short for AUD/USD.
Second, I'm going to put summary of what happen last week, copied from cnbc.com :)
For the week ending Friday, April 18, 2008 the US Markets ended the week rallying on earnings news. The Dow had its best week since Feb 1 and rallied 256.8 points on Wednesday and another 228.87 points on Friday, its biggest point gains since April 1st. The Dow and S&P 500 are close to being 10% above their closing lows of 11740.15 and 1273.37 set in March 10.
The PPI and CPI continued to show signs of inflation, but the core numbers, ex-food and energy, came in as expected. Commodities continued to surge with both oil and grains hitting multiple record highs, stemming food riots globally. The markets were cheered by better than expected quarterly results from JP Morgan and tech giants Google and IBM, which alleviated some worries associated with the credit crisis and slowdown of the U.S. economy.
Economic Data:
-Retail Sales, which includes durable and non-durable goods, surprised with an increase of 0.2% in March, helped by higher gasoline prices. Excluding motor vehicles, the number was up 0.1%. The S&P Retail Index is up 4.88% for the week.
-Signs of inflation persist. The Producer Price Index (PPI) spiked 1.1% in March compared to a 0.3% increase the previous month. The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, had a mild jump of 0.2% for March, just as economists had expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.3% for March. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was 0.2%, meeting economists' expectations.
-Housing Starts dropped 11.9% in March, to its lowest level in 17 years, signaling a continued slump in housing.
-The Philadelphia Fed Survey showed continued weakness in the region’s manufacturing sector that resulted in a negative reading of 24.9 for April. Negative readings indicate a contraction in activity, while positive readings denote expansion.
Currencies:
-The Dollar Index strengthened and was positive for the week, as a rally in the U.S. markets helped the greenback gain some momentum against most major currencies.
-On Friday, the dollar finally strengthened against the euro with the euro losing almost 1% against the dollar on strong corporate earnings news in the United States. Better than expected earnings by major technology companies and a not so grim report by Citigroup, supported the greenback to recover some of its losses against the euro.
*The euro reached a historic high against the U.S. dollar to $1.5981 on Thursday, surpassing its all-time high of $1.5975 set the prior day.
-The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen to 104.28 yen on Friday, appreciating about 3.24% for the week on strong U.S. earnings.
-The pound sterling modestly rose against the U.S. dollar by 1.24% for the week, hitting an intraday high of $1.9997 on Friday, but pulled back to $1.9932 as the dollar appreciated against other currencies.
That's all for today. Thank you for visiting :)
Mid Week Trading Bias :)
Yosh!
First, my trading bias until now:
Long:
Gold
Silver
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
GBP/JPY
Short:
EUR/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/GBP
Second, I'll update my Flizzoe's Game Journal later on this weekend. But let me tell ya something - I have double the money $_$
Third, I started to manage someone's account this week. She deposited $50 into the account. She needs some extra money, that's why I still entertain her request.
Fourth, tomorrow (April 18th) is my birthday. Presents are welcome :p
Fifth, that's all for today. Thank you for visiting :)
My Trades This Week
Yosh!
These are my trading bias for this week (trading based on trading bias is to trade at discretion without any help from indicators. Some of the decisions are based on Fundamental Analysis).
Long:
Gold
Silver
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
GBP/JPY
Short:
EUR/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/GBP
I'll look at the lower time frame to find suitable entry. Bias might change anytime, depending on the price movement and data from economic indicators.
The Flizzoe's Game Journal
There were some trades closed since last time I updated the journal. I'll just make it short and simple.
Balance: $12.10
Gold
0.1 lot, long at 911.00
Silver
0.1 lot, long at 17.68
0.1 lot, long at 17.41
EUR/USD
0.1 lot, short at 1.5895
NZD/USD
0.1 lot, short at 0.8012
New pairs added:
USD/JPY
0.1 lot, long at 100.85
USD/CHF
0.1 lot, long at 0.9972
EUR/GBP
0.2 lot, short at 0.8026
GBP/JPY
0.1 lot, long at 199.37
0.1 lot, long at 199.47
Other positions hits their target profit.
New balance: $14.10
Return on Investment: 41%
That's all for today. Try it yourself. Thank you for visiting.
A Weekly Wrap
Yosh!
This time I'm going to share some stuff, a summary of what happened in last week. I was introducing a way how to increase your trading skill and discipline and shown you guys an example on how to do so.
Information below I copied from CNBC:
Economic Data:
- The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a 26-year low and came at a reading of 63.2 for April.
- The Bank of England cut its key-lending rate by a quarter point to 5%, while the European Central Bank left its rate unchanged at 4.0%.
- FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Minutes meeting highlighted that the rate of real GDP for the first half of 2008 had to be revised down due to the continued credit crunch crisis, depressed housing sector, weaker labor market, and high energy costs weighing down on the consumer.
- Pending Home Sales Index (National Association Realtors) fell 1.9% for the month to 84.6 in February, showing additional weakness in the housing sector.
- Homebuilders such as Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), and Pulte Homes (PHM) declined on negative home sales report and all shares declined above 11% or more for the week.
- Wholesale Trade showed signs of decline in demand for goods as inventories rose 1.1% in February.
- The U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.7% in February as consumer imports surpassed exports, while economists expected the deficit to shrink.
- Crude Oil May futures rallied and reached a record intraday high of $112.21 a barrel and a record close of $110.87 on 4/9 due to low inventories reports. Crude Supply fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week ending of April 4 as per EIA. Crude has gained 14.75% for the year.
**AAA as of 4/11 reported a new record high for the US average gasoline price at $3.365 per gallon.
**EIA as of 4/07 reported an average retail gasoline price of $3.332 a gallon. - Heating Oil for May delivery hit an all-time high of $3.3204 per gallon on 4/10, as global demand for the fuel.
- Natural Gas for May delivery hit an intraday high of $10.314 per million British thermal units on 4/10 following the news that a production facility was shut down in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas is up 6.21% for the week.
- The dollar Index (.DXY), which tracks the dollar standing against six foreign currencies, is down 6.38% year-to-date.
- Thursday, the euro hit a new record-high of $1.5911 against the U.S. dollar, but pulled back to $1.5735 on news that the European Central Bank would keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.0%. The euro appreciated about .5% for the week to $1.5821 on Friday morning.
**Inflation in the euro zone hit a record 3.5% in March. - The pound sterling depreciated about 1% for the week against the greenback to $1.9714 on Friday. The Bank of England reduced its key interest rate by .25 points to 5%, or its lowest level since November 2006.
- For the week, the U.S. dollar hit an intraday low of 100.02 Japanese yen on Thursday. The greenback lost ground against the Japanese currency purchasing 101.15 yen on Friday.
- Highlights: China, Sweden, and Chile
- The greenback fell below the 7-yuan mark for the first time in over a decade, with one dollar purchasing 6.9721 yuan late on Thursday. The Chinese yuan has appreciated over 4% year-to-date.
- The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low of 5.9051 versus the Swedish krona on Thursday. The Swedish krona has appreciated about 8% year-to-date.
- Friday, the Chilean peso depreciated nearly 4% against the U.S. dollar, after Chile’s central bank announced that it would purchase approximately $8 billion throughout 2008, in an effort to prevent the peso from further strengthening against the greenback. On Friday afternoon, one dollar purchased 446.3 Chilean pesos.
Update on Flizzoe's Game Journal
Yosh!
Today I don't really searching for trading opportunities, but I'm trading for my game account. I break the rules a bit, and I added Silver into my game play.
In the beginning, the precious metals seem like moving against me and my equity was supported by EUR/USD and NZD/USD. But later yesterday, the Crude Oil Inventories is lower than expected, that is -3.1M. This cause the price of crude oil to increase, and indirectly, the precious metals' price also increased.
Then I need to deal with EUR/USD and NZD/USD. I still maintain the original rule in NZD/USD, that is only two positions in this pair. But for EUR/USD it is a different story. The price is increasing due to the Crude Oil Inventories announcement and this evening, the pair hit a new high while waiting for the interest rate announcement - the ECB maintain the interest rate at 4%. It is so irresistible, so I open few short positions.
I know the balance is low, thanks to the precious metals that cause my equity and free margin to increase. That is the purpose to let the profit to run - to increase the capacity of the account to open more positions even though the balance is low.
Now I'm continue with the journal.
The Flizzoe's Game Journal
Balance: $11.20
Gold:
0.1 lot, long at 913.00, closed at 914.00, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, long at 912.00, closed at 913.00, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, long at 911.00, still open.
current price is 929.00.
Silver:
0.1 lot, long at 17.77, closed at 17.79, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, long at 17.68, still open.
current price is 17.94.
EUR/USD:
0.1 lot, short at 1.5836, closed at 1.5826, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5846, closed at 1.5836, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5856, closed at 1.5846, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5875, closed at 1.5865, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5895, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5816, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5806, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5796, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5784, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5774, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5743, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 1.5733, still open.
current price is 1.5820.
NZD/USD
0.1 lot, short at 0.7972, closed at 0.7962, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 0.7962, closed at 0.7952, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, short at 0.7992, still open.
0.1 lot, short at 0.7982, still open.
current price is 0.7887.
New balance: $12.10
Return on investment: 121%
There are few bad trades in EUR/USD and there are two ways to settle this. First is to close the positions that were opened at the lowest price, but only sacrifice the profit. The other way is to hold until they hit their own target profit.
I'm still looking forward for more economic data in this week to formulate new strategy.
That's all for today, I'll update more later. Thank you for visiting.
The Flizzoe's Game Journal
Yosh!
This morning I don't have any trading idea, and I don't see any new trading opportunities yet. However, I'm going to update my trading journal for my Flizzoe's Game.
For those who have missed what is the Flizzoe's Game and don't feel like wanna check it out in the archives, the Flizzoe's Game is a kind of training to develop your trading skills and discipline with a small amount of money, that is $10. If you can make money with that $10, that means you can make a lot of money with a larger amount of money, assuming that you have the same discipline and attitude, like when you trade $10.
Today, in addition to the journal, I'm going to share my trading strategy - not trading signals or what ever, but strategy. Strategy needs creativity. It is necessary to know how to calculate the cost of your trades (the value for each lot of each pair you want to trade) and how much money you want to earn or willing to lose (the pip value).
My strategy in this game is, I'm going to let my profit run and at the same time, if I can buy (or sell) at a better price, I'm going to open second position. But, there will be no more than 2 positions for each pair or precious metals, due to limited amount of money. This will help me to increase the equity and free margin, which means, the capacity of my account to open more positions has been increased even though the balance is low. And of course, I will close the first position at least 10 pips or at most, 100 pips, depending on the movement of the price and how many positions are floating in my portfolio.
I rarely use any indicators in my analysis. I just don't trust them. I use trend lines to illustrate my trading ideas and sometimes moving average. Most of the trading decisions made out of my discretion and instinct, after I'm doing some fundamental analysis. I have some strategies I like in my trading arsenal and I keep adding more stuff in it.
Now I continue with the journal.
The Flizzoe's Game Journal
Balance: $11
Gold
0.1 lot, long at 913.00, still open.
0.1 lot, long at 912.00, still open.
current price is 916.00.
EUR/USD
0.1 lot, sell at 1.5713, closed at 1.5703, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, sell at 1.5723, closed at 1.5713, giving 10 cent profit.
0.1 lot, sell at 1.5733, still open.
current price is 1.5715.
NZD/USD
0.1 lot, sell at 0.7962, still open.
current price 0.7967.
I have put new pair into my game play. Current price of NZD/USD is around 250 pips from the highest high. With my current balance (not including the positive positions in other pairs), the account can hold up to 550 pips if the price is going against me.
For EUR/USD, my current position is 170 pips away from the highest high.
The new balance is $11.20.
That's all for today, I'll update later, thank you for visiting ;)
Today's Trading Idea
Yosh!
This going to be my second post for today. Ya know, right now I'm on my vacation for 3 months, so I have plenty of time to update my blog.
My trading idea is to sell EUR/USD, here's the chart:
When there is new candle open below the trend line, I will start selling EUR/USD. It is not necessary to sell immediately, usually I will make some pending orders by looking at lower time frame chart. Or I will just follow my trading instinct. Don't ask me how to do that, I just got it from my experience ;) As soon as you start trading, making some profit and suffer some losses (remember, we gain some, we lose some), you will develop such skill unconsciously. As long as you are willing to learn from your mistakes and never give up.
The target profit is around 10 - 100 pips, depending on discretion. Stop loss is 200 pips - the highest high.
By the way, I do not close yet my positions yesterday (the Flizzoe's Game), I think if the pair really break the trend line and the next candlestick open below the line, it will confirm yesterday's trades.
That's all for today, I'll update this blog when I have some time. Thank you for visiting :)
UPDATE:
I will not sell EUR/USD yet, reason:
There might be a new point to redraw the trend line, and the price did not break the low of previous candlestick. For the time being, I will not sell EUR/USD. Looking foward to do so after a few hours or maybe tomorrow morning.
The $10 Account Game a.k.a. The Flizzoe's Game
Yosh!
Today (yeah I know, the time is 1.04 am GMT+8) I'm going to introduce a game how to improve your trading skill, i.e. money management, discipline, and what not. I call it the $10 Account Game or to make it more catchy, the Flizzoe's Game :p
It is simple, just open a micro account at any broker, and deposit $10 into the account, and then start trading. I want to make it $5 Account Game, but I guess that might be too low for some people, so I make it $10.
The rationale behind this game is, if you can't even trade $10 and make profit from it, that means, you won't be able to trade any amount larger than that. If you can make profit out of it, that means, you will make a lot of profit when you trade larger amount of money (you know, when you have lotsa money you can compound and what not), assuming that you still have the same discipline and attitude when you trade $10.So instead of trading fake money in virtual account, you will play real money but it is only $10.
$10 is small, and it requires a strict money management and discipline. You need to be patient to wait for the right time and signal, the appropriate amount of money that you want to trade, and a reasonable target profit and stop loss.
I'm going to play this game for a while to show you guys how to play the game, I'll put my trading journal in this blog from time to time together with my trading ideas.
NOTE: The trades I made in this game DO NOT reflect my trades in other account.
Yesterday I have put some trading ideas, and I have traded Gold and now trading EUR/USD.
As I expected there was a new point to redraw the trend line, the buy signal is when the new candle opened above the line.
The Flizzoe's Game Journal
Starting balance: $10
Gold
0.1 lot, long at 914.00, closed at 924.00, giving $1 profit.
0.1 lot, long at 913.00, still open, current price is around 922.00.
EUR/USD
0.1 lot, short at 1.5713, still open
0.1 lot, short at 1.5723, still open
current price is around 1.4700
There is no signal to go short EUR/USD. I open the positions because the current price is around 200 pips away from the highest high, that means, if the price really touch the highest high, that would be -$2 for each positions. Right now I have $11, that means the account can hold up to 550 pips for each positions. My target profit is 100 pips, stop loss maybe around 40-50 pips - which means the most I will loss is $1, the profit I made from earlier trade :)
That's it for the time being, thank you for visiting :)
This Week Trading Ideas
Yosh!
Today I'm going to post some of my trading ideas. Let me start with EUR/USD:
For the time being I'll wait for the price to break any of the trend lines. If the pair break the upper trend line, then I'll do some buys, vice versa. Target profit is depending on my discretion, but maybe I'll target around 10-20 pips. If I don't have any other trading ideas, maybe I'll just let the profit run.
Stop loss is around 100-150 pips, depending on my discretion.
Next, GBP/USD:
Right now the price is going down, I'll wait for the price to reverse and if breaks the trend line, I might look at lower time frame chart to find some buying opportunities. Target profit and stop loss is similar as above.
Lastly, Gold:
I missed the opportunity to buy some last week, so for the time being, I'll wait for the price to go lower and buy some of it. However, I afraid that, in the next few days, there will be new point to draw the trend line.
The candle that I have circled might be the new point to draw the trend line, so I'll be a bit more cautious on that. I'll wait for the next few hours, whether I should redraw the line or not.
That's all for the time being, my trading ideas for this week. I'm half swing half intraday trader, so I always change my strategy depending on the market. The market is dynamic, therefore, it is necessary for all traders to become dynamic too.
Please bear in mind my trading ideas are not trading signals. They are merely ideas, used as guidelines. Do your homework before you do your trading :)
Thank you for visiting ;)
Trading the Week Ahead
Yosh!
Firstly I would like to apologize for not updating this blog for a week. I have final examinations for Family Law II and Law of Succession. And thank God, now everything is done and I can focus more on forex for the next 3 months.
In this week, I might not be able to trade my own account because I want to pay full attention to a new account - there was a person approached me last week asking me to do her a favour by managing her account and I have no problem with that.
For the time being I have no specific trading idea, but I'm looking at Gold. I believe there is some buying opportunities and maybe it can be a good start for the new account that I will manage soon.
If anyone interested, just gimme a call and maybe we can strike a deal.
I'll update this blog soon, thank you for visiting ;)