Yosh!
This week I don't really have any plan to trade heavily like I did last week. I jut want to keep existing positions so that my account have larger capacity to open new positions. Right now I'm keeping 3 positions:
1. USD/CHF: Buy @ 0.9922
2. USD/JPY: Buy @ 98.89
2. EUR/USD: Sell @ 1.5837
If the trend move against current position, then I will renew the position - close old position, open new position at a better price.
At the same time I'm taking small profits by trading (my trading bias is to sell) NZD/USD for some capital gain - this also will increase the equity and free margin.
The formula for equity is:
Equity = Balance + Profit - Loss
The higher equity you have, the more difficult your account to be stopped out (margin call).
The formula for free margin is:
Free Margin = Balance - (Used) Margin + Profit - Loss
The higher free margin I have, the bigger quantity of lots or positions I can open even though my balance is low.
This is not about technical or fundamental analysis, but this is strategy. Who says we only need analysis to trade in forex? Take your sweet time to think about this ;)
Thank you for visiting, I'll update this blog whenever possible.
This Week Plan
Pops and Drops
Yosh!
This is the pops and drops last week:
Pops:
1. EUR/USD
2. USD/JPY
Drop:
Gold
Uncertain:
USD/CHF
For the time being I would stop trading gold for long term (to increase equity), only short term profit taking. Others still remain in the play.
Changing Strategy :)
Yosh!
Right now I'm monitoring my trades and I'm planning to change my strategy a bit for a while, and this of course, giving me some trading ideas. No charts, just rough ideas:
BUY
1. USD/CHF
2. USD/JPY
3. Gold
SELL
1. EUR/USD
Currently, USD/CHF is 200 pips away from the lowest low, USD/JPY is 400 pips away from the lowest low (I managed to buy at 98.89) and EUR/USD is 100 pips away from the highest high.
I have few bad trades in USD/CHF and I'm seeking some ways to get rid of it. Any mistakes might cost me a lot. For the time being I'm just want to increase my equity to a much safer level even though right now, the margin level is around 500%.
One way is to make as much as possible profit, another way is just to let any profitable positions alive. I have my own target profit. Whenever I exceed it, I'll spend it to kill some of the bad trades. If not, I'll just let the bad trades hit their targets ;)
I'll put more trading ideas if I have any. Thank you for visiting :)
UPDATE:
This is my trading idea for Gold.
If the next candle, open above the trend line (break out), then I will go long :)
UPDATE:
This morning the Gold is going down a bit, which means there some buying opportunities to buy at lower price than yesterday. I redraw the trend line I drew yesterday as market movement create a new drawing point. When a new candle open above the trend line, then it gives the signal to buy :)
Thank you for visiting ;)
No Perfect Setup
Yosh!
Since yesterday I'm waiting for some perfect setups for next trading ideas but I don't found any yet. By the way USD/JPY hit its target and I look at USD/CHF, I guess my decision to dump the trading idea was a wise decision.
I'll update this blog whenever I have new trading idea.
UPDATE:
Right now I'm looking at USD/CHF, maybe wanna find some buying opportunities there. I have some bad trades need to be taken care of, so maybe I will not put any trading ideas from other pairs for the time being :)
Thank you for visiting ;)
Monday's Trading Idea
Yosh!
This is my trading idea early this morning: Buy USD/JPY.
I have some other trading ideas, but today I think I just want to focus on this pair, trade until all positions are closed, then I will find some new trading opportunities.
The pair has broken out the trend line (red) this morning and it might break the moving average (yellow) out soon. I would wait for the price to go down a bit to buy on dip.
Target profit is 100 pips each, stop loss is around 400 pips, depending on my discretion and strategy.
Current price right now is around 400 pips away from the lowest low.
UPDATE: Alternative Trade
Besides USD/JPY, I found another opportunity in USD/CHF. This has has broken out the trend line and moving average. This can be an alternative trade for above trading idea. Either USD/JPY or USD/CHF.
Target profit is 100 pips, stop loss is around 400 - 500 pips depending on discretion. Current price is around 500 pips away from the lowest low.
UPDATE: USD/CHF
If current candle does not break 1.0190 - 1.0200, I would dump the idea of buying this pair.
Homework :)
Yosh!
Last week I managed to put some trading ideas and next week I'm going to put some more, if I have any. Before any trading ideas pop up in mind, homework must be done. There several stuff that should be included.
The most important thing is the news about the currency's country/region's economy. If you love to trade major pairs, then read stuff about US economy. Read from subprime issues, Bear Stern (R.I.P) was sold to its competitor, rate cuts by Fed and what ever relevant to the country's economy. Get some idea what happen to this and that - there must be a reasoning behind it.
Then look at the chart, and plan your trades for next week. How much to you expect to earn, willing to lose, how many positions and what not. There's no need a lot of time for that, at most you need around 1 hour.
A trader become rich not when he trades his money, but when he did his homework :)
p/s: I'm in final exam mood. I'll update my blog whenever I have some time.
Pops and Drops
Yosh!
Today I'm going to put pops and drops from yesterday trading ideas:
The pops:
EUR/USD
NZD/USD
The drop:
USD/CAD
Not yet:
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
USD/CHF
For the time being I will take minimal profit and looking forward next trading opportunity.
p/s: I was out last night and I missed to trade short GBP/USD.
Morning Trades :)
Yosh!
I woke up early this morning and look at the charts, omg, I saw some trading opportunities ;) Early this morning the Fed cut the interest rate from 3% to 2.25%.
My morning trades today:
1. EUR/USD: Sell
2. USD/JPY: Buy
3. USD/CHF: Buy
4. EUR/JPY: Buy
Also I'm looking at USD/CAD and GBP/JPY.
UPDATE:
I was out the whole morning, doing some revision on Constitutional Law subject and when I come back and look at the chart - I'm very excited :)
I still don't change my early morning trading ideas, plus sell USD/CAD, it is just I'm still searching the best price to do the trades. By the way I forgot to put earlier the "trading ideas" - my bad.
Maybe I'll just wait until the London's market to open to sell at high and buy at low.
Some Mistakes :(
Yosh!
Last night I posted my trading ideas, how I'm going to trade the Comdolls. But I made some mistakes when drawing the trend lines. Regardless, AUD/USD managed to reach its target profit, so it is no more a problem to me.
But it is different with NZD/USD. I have one floating position last night, now I have five. I have no problem with that (for the time being), considering my margin level is more than 1000% (around 7000% for the time being), which means I can hold the positions longer. Moreover, I have no other trading idea(s) for the time being, so I think I will let my money float in the market - at least I'm utilizing some part of my capital.
Hopefully the trades will become profitable instead of junk trades ;)
I redraw the trend line, so below is the correct one:
UPDATE:
I'm planning to put only one entry per day, so I'm just adding another stuff in today's entry. New trading idea, the other comdoll that I didn't put in the game plan yesterday - USD/CAD.
I'm waiting for the right time to start selling this pair. I still have some extra cash to open some positions in this pair. That's the way I play the game. What ever happen, no matter how sweet the trading idea is, I will never put all my cash to open positions. There are many other pairs and I have no idea when a new trading opportunity will pop up. Here's my game plan:
Sell the pair as soon as a new candle open below the line. Look at the moving average, it is just below the latest candle, acting as support. Once the price break it, I will have more confident the sell this pair.
Target profit is 100 pips each, while stop loss is around 200 - 300 pips, depending on my discretion.
p/s: Right now I have nine positions in NZD/USD.
UPDATE:
It seems USD/CAD only touched the trend line and did not break. No trades for this pair for them time being.
Exit Trade, Change Course [March 17 2008]
Yosh!
Yesterday I put my trading idea, that is to sell GBP/USD and today the pair hit the target :)
So now, let's exit the market, and change course. I was looking at my list, searching for trading opportunities and I found something in the Comdolls ;) Comdolls stand for Commodity dollars - it is a currency where its country's exports mostly commodities.
Here's my trading idea: NZD/USD
I will sell once the next candle open below the trend line, the moving average right now acting as support. If the price is below the moving average, then there will be higher possibility for the pair to go down.
In the other side, it is only 200 pips away from the new high the pair made last 3 weeks and last week it didn't manage to break it. Here's how I'm gonna play the game - small, multiple pending orders (sell limit) for every 10 pips , which means, if the pair goes up (maybe make new high), I will have 20 small positions (might put another 10 positions) with target profit 100 pips each.
Stop loss is 250 pips, depending on my discretion when I trade later.
Another trading idea: AUS/USD
This pair is a bit different. Right now the price is below the moving average, which means I can sell right now, and the trend is about to change. Can you see that the line (yellow) is turning, from up to sideway? There would be 2 possibilities, trend continuation or reversal.
So this is my game plan. Sell right away. Small and multiple lots for each 10 pips.
The range with current price and the highest high is around 300 pips. If the pair goes up, I will have around 30 positions (might add another 10 positions) with target profit 100 pips each.
Stop loss is 350 pips, depending on my discretion.
We'll see what will happen later :)
Trading the Week Ahead
Yosh!
Today I'm going to put my trading idea for next week. Remember, forex market operates 24/5, so weekend is the best time for us to do some homework. Next week, I'm planning to trade GBP/USD, depending on the circumstances.
The above chart is GBP/USD with 4 hour time frame. I have 2 trading ideas for this:
1. Sell GBP/USD when the next candlestick open below the trend line (red color).
2. Sell GBP/USD when the price is closed below moving average (yellow color).
Target profit is around 100 - 200 pips, stop loss is at least 200 pips, depending on my discretion when I trade next week.
For the time being I have 2 bad trades, EUR/USD and USD/CAD. Next I want to get rid of them by putting their tps at 1 pip (they can hold up to -500 pips, so I don't really worry about them).
Trading Bias
Yosh!
Since I don't use any indicator (okie okie, sometimes I use trend lines) to help me in my trading, usually I will trade based on my trading bias. If I think the pair will go down, then I will make few pending orders sell limit and vice versa. I don't prefer to open position at the current price since by making pending orders, I can have a position at a better price, at least 10 pips, than opening a position at the current level.
For target profit, usually I will pun around 10 - 20 pips for intraday and 100 pips for swing and I don't put any stop losses because I always make sure that my margin is strong enough to hold any positions I have opened - means, I will calculate first how much I can trade with my money even if my account only has $5 in it.
Trading bias can never tell me the trend is right or wrong. I just do it. I always open small, multiple positions, and at one point I need to hold a position more than 24 hours. But practice makes perfect. I always try to recognize some chart patterns so my bias will be more reliable.
What ever it is, whenever I in doubt, I don't trade ;)
This week's trades :)
Yosh!
Last week something I got some crazy ideas to improve my trading skill and so far the result is beyond expectation. Yesterday I started my new experiment and I managed to earn 43% from my capital!
Today I'm still looking forward to earn some more. My trade list:
1. EUR/USD
2. USD/JPY
3. Gold
4. Silver
I found out that Gold right now is a liability to my equity (a bad trade). So as soon as it hits the target, Gold will be no more in my play list. EUR/USD also a liability for the time being but I don't consider that as bad trades since the pair is the main trade. I trade USD/JPY to fully utilize my capital and so far it really helps to stabilize some bad trades.
I don't use any indicator in my trades. I prefer to use instinct. I have no idea since when I started to trade based on discretion but I really enjoy each and every trades I done. Don't ask me where I got that. It comes from experience ;)
Developing New Technique :)
Yosh!
Early this week I received extra fund from my mom to be deposited into my trading account. I love to trade Gold and I have developed one technique for that, that can give me 10 - 50% a week. So as usual I enjoy myself trading and watch my account balance grow.
However just like George Soros once said, profitable trading is always boring and indeed, I can't help myself but to yawn several times while waiting the market moves. And some how I got a new idea to develop new technique and tested it in my trading account and guess what? The new technique can give me at least 25% a day!
At the other side, I need to stay vigilant all the time. This is not scalping, but I just need to make sure that I buy and sell the best price possible. In addition to Gold, I also trade other major pairs but now I considering to put some comdolls and crosses into my trading list.
For the time being, these are in my list:
1. Gold
2. Silver
3. EUR/USD
4. USD/CHF
5. USD/JPY
6. AUD/USD
Right now I'm eying NZD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/GBP.
I have no intention to share anything how does it works or what not. But I'm glad to share how much I can earn every week ;)
Trading Idea for this Week
I have problem with my internet connection last week and finally the problem is solved. So today I can update my blog and do some trades. I managed to get financial aid to "ease" my financial problem a bit. Hopefully by April, everything will become a lot better.
I have not finish yet watching my wrestling collection from October until the recent one. Yeah, that's a lot of episodes considering that I added TNA Impact in my collection. What ever it is, I'll watch the later, when I have some time.
Regarding to trading, this is my trading idea:
Last week we saw Gold made a new high and yesterday it had free fall from up there. I think there's an opportunity to buy some Gold at current price since I'm expecting the price will hit $ 1000. We'll see about that.
I'll update my blog later :)
UPDATE:
Gold hit new high! Weeeee!